Dynamics of the Trade Balance: In Search of the J-Curve using a Structural Gravity Approach

Beschreibung

The present paper uses a structural gravity approach, specifying currency movements as component of trade costs, in order to derive an empirical trade balance model, which incorporates multilateral resistance terms and accounts for the cross-country variation in the magnitude of the exchange rate pass-through into import and export prices. The model then is estimated using quarterly bilateral trade flows between 47 countries, disaggregated into 97 commodity groups, over the period 2010Q1-2017Q2. The results support the existence of a pooled J-curve across countries and commodity sectors; at the same time they point to considerable heterogeneity in the effects across countries and industries below the surface of aggregate data.

Zeitraum	18 Feb. 2017 → 24 Feb. 2017
Ereignistitel	Winterseminar der Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR)
Veranstaltungstyp	Keine Angaben
Bekanntheitsgrad	National