Economics Versus Identity: The Political Effects of FDI Inflows into the United States

Beschreibung

What determines preferences regarding economic openness? In deciding whether or not to vote in favor of trade- and investment-treaties, members of congress have to balance economic and identity considerations. All else equal, members prefer investment in their districts, bringing jobs and growth that rebounds to the success of incumbents. However, in addition to the economic benefits of proposed foreign investment, they must also consider the identity of that investor. After all, the downsides of working with an unpopular partner may overwhelm the benefits of a local economic boost. We hypothesize that members of congress who specialize in foreign policy, those who are more “Hawkish,” and those in the President’s party may have extra incentives to prioritize the identity of the partner over the local benefit. We assess the relative weights of these factors by analyzing 21st century trade deals approved or implemented by Congress, from countries as different as Russia, India, and South Korea. We rely on two different types of variation: (1) repeated votes on trade topics with the same country at different points in time; and (2) votes at similar points in time on deals with different trade partners. We utilize new data on FDI inflows into U.S. congressional districts and states to measure the economic interests of each individual member, both overall and specific to the prospective economic partner, while also assessing the impact of the trade partner’s identity and political relations with the United States on member support. These original data provide far greater specificity on where investment is flowing to, from, and in what industries, than existing blunt measures provide. Our findings suggest a complex interplay between economics and politics, where economic considerations matter, but so do political considerations. Investment in a member’s district can influence subsequent support for trade deals, but foreign policy concerns (with states such as Russia) can overcome local economic interests, especially for foreign-policy specialists and members of the party in government.

Zeitraum	30 Aug. 2018 → 2 Sept. 2018
Ereignistitel	Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association
Veranstaltungstyp	Konferenz
Ort	Boston, USA/Vereinigte Staaten, MassachusettsAuf Karte anzeigen
Bekanntheitsgrad	International