In the following article, we analyze the ex ante and ex post risk premium in the European and US natural gas market. We find that futures prices are biased predictors of future spot prices such that the risk premia can be detected by an ex ante and an ex post model. While for Europe, the expectations lie well above the true observable values, the opposite is true for the American market, where expectations turn out to be rather conservative, such that an additional premium can be reached. Moreover, we show that the impacting factors on both variables are not identical which indicates the gap between ex ante expectations and truly realized values.
25 Nov. 2011 → 26 Nov. 2011
The 26th Workshop of the Austrian Working Group on Banking and Finance