Big Structural Change

Wider research context / theoretical framework: The objective of research unit (RU) “Big Structural Change” (BISC) is to contribute from a micro-perspective to the theory and empirics of institutional change. We define institutions as formal or informal rules, e.g., laws or social norms, to which stakeholders may ascribe a
normative quality.

Hypotheses/research questions /objectives: The RU focusses on changes that are “big” in the sense of potentially unsettling the societal structure, defined as the total web of formal and informal rules that determine how state, economy, and society organize the political system, produce and distribute welfare,
and shape their social relations. These changes can either be incremental and rather slow, long-term, or disruptive and rather fast; and some may even be first the former and then the latter. RU BISC theoretically defines three channels of impact essential to these change processes: externalities, beliefs, and legitimacy
(BEL-model). We define externalities as reallocation of both material and immaterial costs and benefits among stakeholders, occurring when global trends like climate change, mass migration, and globalization & technological progress hit the societal structure. In response to externalities, people change their beliefs about the properties and expected outcomes of existing institutions; and new political, social, and economic conflicts emerge. Belief changes caused by externalities can, but need not, affect the legitimacy of institutions. If they do, societal responses to the new conflicts may trigger off disruptive BISC, and if they do not, conflict responses may trigger off incremental BISC (leading hypothesis). Two working hypotheses, the conflict-escalation and the conflict-abatement hypothesis, specify which types of responses to the novel societal conflicts lead to which type of BISC. The nine individual subprojects of RU BISC are structured along these two hypotheses and three major drivers of change, viz. climate change, globalization and technological change, and mass migration.

Approach/methods: RU BISC empirically investigates the causal mechanisms of big structural change, applying methods of causal inference, predominantly theory-based experiments.

Level of originality / innovation: The novelty of RU BISC is that it combines the three disciplines of economics, political science, and sociology to study institutional change. We propose a new model, the Beliefs-Externalities-Legitimacy (BEL) model, in order to describe, explain, and empirically test under which conditions incremental versus disruptive change of institutions occurs.

Primary researchers involved: Anselm Hager (HU Berlin), Melis Kartal (WU Wien), Heike Klüver (HU Berlin), Claudia Landwehr (U Mainz), Lydia Mechtenberg (U Hamburg), Grisha Perino (U Hamburg), Fabian Paetzel (TU Clausthal), Rupert Sausgruber (WU Wien), Stefan Traub (HSU Hamburg), Stefan Voigt (U Hambu