CRADI: Cattle Ranching in the Amazon PA

The Amazon rainforest is vital for local biodiversity and livelihoods, as well as for regional and global climates. Vast areas of the Amazon have been deforested, however, and the biome is at the brink of reaching an irreversible tipping point. In Brazil, conversion to pasture accounts for the majority of direct deforestation and cattle ranching is expanding rapidly, contributing to air and water pollution in its vicinity. Besides rising domestic and international demand for beef, indirect land pressures from agriculture and speculative land grabbing may also play an important role for this expansion. To date however, there is limited causal evidence that identifies the exact drivers and ramifications of the unprecedented expansion of pastures and the cattle industry.
I will provide robust causal evidence on the drivers and impacts of the expansion of pasture and the cattle industry in the Brazilian Amazon. In two research papers, I will (i) isolate the deforestation effects of the cattle expansion, induced by the demand for beef, and (ii) estimate the adverse health impacts of the cattle industry mediated by environmental degradation. The first paper identifies the economic drivers of deforestation, informing effective interventions, and the second paper sheds light on a negative externality of the beef industry that has, hitherto, been neglected.
The research questions require rigorous causal inference, for which I will use quasi-experimental methods from the micro-econometric literature. The research designs follow (i) a shift-share instrumental variable approach, and (ii) a staggered difference-in-differences framework. Paired with rich panel data on slaughterhouse openings and operations, land use changes, air and water pollution measurements, and health outcomes, these designs will allow me to provide robust causal evidence on the drivers and impacts of the beef industry and pasture expansion in the Amazon.
The project provides novel causal evidence on two important aspects of the ongoing and rapid expansion of the cattle industry in the Amazon. The prevailing literature on its drivers lacks credible causal frameworks, stopping short of disentangling different underlying channels. Analyses of health impacts have been scarce and isolated to specific sites, and the effects of water and air pollution caused by the beef industry have been neglected.