Korrelation von Konjunkturzyklen und Makroökonomische Ungleichgewichte in der EU

OeNB Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Jubiläumsfonds)

This project investigates empirically if macroeconomic imbalances as listed by the European Commission´s scoreboard indicators have contributed to periods of diverging business cycles. Hereby, it focuses on the desynchronizing effects of imbalances in the current account, excessive public and private debt and country-specific booms/recessions. In addition, the effects of a common monetary policy under decoupled economic activity are considered. A strong influence in the results would support the idea of stringent surveillance and strengthened economic policy coordination in the Eurozone since co-movement of cycles is a condition for a well-functioning monetary union.