Abstract
A popular notion asserts that closing the last
primary school marks a community’ s
demographic death. No young parents will
remain, much less new ones move in. This
notion is frequently voiced but rarely verified.
Are school closures a cause or consequence of
local decline? This study reviews existing
research on school locations and peripheral
population decline to show that expectations of
a dramatic impact of school closures on
out-migration are theoretically ill-founded. I
proceed to discuss specific methodological
challenges in the empirical analysis of this re-
lationship, and conduct a statistical analysis for
the province of Saxony in East Germany for the
period 1994–2007. In contrast to the prevailing
discourse, there is little evidence of an appre-
ciable effect of primary school closures on local
population decline. This negative finding is
discussed in light of local contextual factors and
general insights from population geography.
primary school marks a community’ s
demographic death. No young parents will
remain, much less new ones move in. This
notion is frequently voiced but rarely verified.
Are school closures a cause or consequence of
local decline? This study reviews existing
research on school locations and peripheral
population decline to show that expectations of
a dramatic impact of school closures on
out-migration are theoretically ill-founded. I
proceed to discuss specific methodological
challenges in the empirical analysis of this re-
lationship, and conduct a statistical analysis for
the province of Saxony in East Germany for the
period 1994–2007. In contrast to the prevailing
discourse, there is little evidence of an appre-
ciable effect of primary school closures on local
population decline. This negative finding is
discussed in light of local contextual factors and
general insights from population geography.
Originalsprache | Englisch |
---|---|
Seiten (von - bis) | 735 - 753 |
Fachzeitschrift | Population, Space and Place |
Jahrgang | 21 |
DOIs | |
Publikationsstatus | Veröffentlicht - 2014 |
Österreichische Systematik der Wissenschaftszweige (ÖFOS)
- 502005 Bildungsökonomie
- 504007 Empirische Sozialforschung
- 504006 Demographie
- 504005 Bildungssoziologie
- 504004 Bevölkerungsstatistik
- 503006 Bildungsforschung
- 509013 Sozialstatistik
- 507017 Sozialgeographie
- 507002 Bevölkerungsgeographie