Demographic Scenarios by Age, Sex and Education Corresponding to the SSP Narratives

S KC, Wolfgang Lutz

Publikation: Wissenschaftliche FachzeitschriftOriginalbeitrag in FachzeitschriftBegutachtung


In this paper, we translate the five narratives as defined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) research community into five alternative demographic scenarios using projections by age, sex and level of education for 171 countries up to 2100. The scenarios represent a significant step beyond past population scenarios used in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change context, which considered only population size. The definitions of the medium assumptions about future fertility, mortality, migration and education trends are taken from a major new projections effort by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, while the assumptions for all the other scenarios were defined in interactions with other groups in the SSP community. Since a full data base with all country-specific results is available online, this paper can only highlight selected results.
KEYWORDS: Population projections; Education; Age structure; Scenarios; Country level; SSP
Seiten (von - bis)243 - 260
FachzeitschriftPopulation and Environment
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 1 Feb. 2014