TY - JOUR
T1 - Enhancing the Wisdom of the Crowd With Cognitive-Process Diversity
T2 - The Benefits of Aggregating Intuitive and Analytical Judgments
AU - Keck, Steffen
AU - Tang, Wenjie
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2020.
PY - 2020/10/1
Y1 - 2020/10/1
N2 - Drawing on dual-process theory, we suggest that the benefits that arise from combining several quantitative individual judgments will be heightened when these judgments are based on different cognitive processes. We tested this hypothesis in three experimental studies in which participants provided estimates for the dates of different historical events (Study 1, N = 152), made probabilistic forecasts for the outcomes of soccer games (Study 2, N = 98), and estimated the weight of individuals on the basis of a photograph (Study 3, N = 3,695). For each of these tasks, participants were prompted to make judgments relying on an analytical process, on their intuition, or (in a control condition) on no specific instructions. Across all three studies, our results show that an aggregation of intuitive and analytical judgments provides more accurate estimates than any other aggregation procedure and that this advantage increases with the number of aggregated judgments.
AB - Drawing on dual-process theory, we suggest that the benefits that arise from combining several quantitative individual judgments will be heightened when these judgments are based on different cognitive processes. We tested this hypothesis in three experimental studies in which participants provided estimates for the dates of different historical events (Study 1, N = 152), made probabilistic forecasts for the outcomes of soccer games (Study 2, N = 98), and estimated the weight of individuals on the basis of a photograph (Study 3, N = 3,695). For each of these tasks, participants were prompted to make judgments relying on an analytical process, on their intuition, or (in a control condition) on no specific instructions. Across all three studies, our results show that an aggregation of intuitive and analytical judgments provides more accurate estimates than any other aggregation procedure and that this advantage increases with the number of aggregated judgments.
KW - cognitive processes
KW - decision making
KW - dual-process theory
KW - group judgments
KW - judgment
KW - judgment aggregation
KW - open data
KW - wisdom of the crowd
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85091378445
U2 - 10.1177/0956797620941840
DO - 10.1177/0956797620941840
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 32960747
AN - SCOPUS:85091378445
SN - 0956-7976
VL - 31
SP - 1272
EP - 1282
JO - Psychological Science
JF - Psychological Science
IS - 10
ER -