Ethylene supply in a fluid context: Implications of shale gas and climate change

Gillian Joanne Foster

Publikation: KonferenzbeitragKonferenzposter


This paper projects the United States’ (U.S.) future ethylene supply in the context of two megatrends, the natural gas surge and global climate change. The recent advent of shale gas in the U.S. has redefined the economics of ethylene manufacturing globally, causing a shift towards low-cost U.S. production due to natural gas feedstock, meanwhile reinforcing industry’s reliance on fossil fuels. At the same time, the global climate change crisis compels a transition to a low-carbon economy. These two influencing factors are complex, contested and uncertain. Therefore, this analysis models the future U.S. supply of ethylene to 2050 based on plausible socio-economic scenarios in response to climate change mitigation and adaptation pathways as well as a range of natural gas feedstock prices. The results show that ethylene supply increased in nearly all modeled scenarios. A combination of lower population growth, lower consumption, and higher natural gas prices reduced ethylene supply by 2050. In most cases, forecasted CO2 emissions from ethylene production rose. This is the first study to project future ethylene supply to go beyond price of feedstocks and include socio-economic variables relevant to climate change mitigation and adaptation.
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 2019

Österreichische Systematik der Wissenschaftszweige (ÖFOS)

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