Forecasting sports tournaments by ratings of (prob)abilities: A comparison for the EURO 2008

Publikation: Wissenschaftliche FachzeitschriftOriginalbeitrag in FachzeitschriftBegutachtung

Abstract

doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.10.001

Different methods for assessing the abilities of participants in a sports tournament and their corresponding winning probabilities for the tournament, respectively, are embedded into a common framework and compared with respect to their predictive performance. First, rat-
ings of abilities (such as the Elo rating) are complemented by a simulation approach yielding winning probabilities for the full tournament. Second, tournament winning probabilities are extracted from bookmakers odds using a consensus model and the underlying abilities of the competitors are derived by \inverse" application of the tournament simulation. Both tech-
niques are employed for forecasting the results of the European football championship 2008 (UEFA EURO 2008) for which the consensus model based on bookmakers odds outperforms
methods based on the Elo rating and the FIFA/Coca Cola World rating. Moreover, the book-maker consensus model correctly predicts that the final would be played by teams Germany
and Spain (with a probability of about 20:5%) while showing that both finalists profit from being drawn in groups with relatively weak competitors.
OriginalspracheEnglisch
Seiten (von - bis)471 - 481
FachzeitschriftInternational Journal of Forecasting
Jahrgang26
Ausgabenummer3
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 1 Sep. 2010

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