Abstract
This paper quantitatively assesses the effects of possible alternative future migration
trends in the European Union (EU-15) on population growth and ageing until 2050. In
particular, it views the uncertainty about future migration trends in the context of the
range of possible future fertility and mortality trends. This is first done by comparing
two sets of probabilistic population projections, a "regular" one including immigration,
and a hypothetical "no migration" case assuming a closed population. In the second part
we consider the question to what extent immigration can compensate for the low birth
rates in Europe by combining seven alternative fertility-level scenarios with four
migration scenarios. The results show a distinct compensatory effect for both total
population size and the old-age dependency ratio: 100,000 additional immigrants per
year have the same effect as an increase in the total fertility rate by 0.1 children per
woman on average.
trends in the European Union (EU-15) on population growth and ageing until 2050. In
particular, it views the uncertainty about future migration trends in the context of the
range of possible future fertility and mortality trends. This is first done by comparing
two sets of probabilistic population projections, a "regular" one including immigration,
and a hypothetical "no migration" case assuming a closed population. In the second part
we consider the question to what extent immigration can compensate for the low birth
rates in Europe by combining seven alternative fertility-level scenarios with four
migration scenarios. The results show a distinct compensatory effect for both total
population size and the old-age dependency ratio: 100,000 additional immigrants per
year have the same effect as an increase in the total fertility rate by 0.1 children per
woman on average.
| Originalsprache | Englisch |
|---|---|
| Titel des Sammelwerks | Europe and Its Immigrants in the 21st Century: A New Deal or a Continuing Dialogue of the Deaf? |
| Herausgeber*innen | Papademetriou, D.G. |
| Erscheinungsort | Washington, D.C. |
| Verlag | Migration Policy Institute and Luso-American Foundation |
| Seiten | 207 - 222 |
| Publikationsstatus | Veröffentlicht - 1 Dez. 2006 |