Global and regional population ageing: How certain are we of its dimensions?

Wolfgang Lutz, Warren Sanderson, Sergej Scherbov

Publikation: Wissenschaftliche FachzeitschriftOriginalbeitrag in FachzeitschriftBegutachtung


Population ageing is, in the first instance, a demographic phenomenon, although its
consequences go far beyond demography. But the future trends of ageing are not yet
known and many of the consequences of ageing will depend on the future speed and
extent of ageing. Here we summarize what is already known and what is not yet known
about future ageing trends in different parts of the world. We do this through the means
of new probabilistic population forecasts. Section 2 presents the results of those
forecasts. They confirm our earlier finding that it is highly likely that the world’s
population growth will come to the end during this century. The following four sections
present results for proportions of populations 60+, old age dependency ratios,
proportions 80+ and average ages. In Section 7, we analyse a new measure of ageing
that takes life expectancy changes into account.
Seiten (von - bis)75 - 97
FachzeitschriftJournal of Population Ageing
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 1 Nov. 2008