Abstract
Abstract We present evidence that global vectorautoregressive (GVAR) models produce more accurate recession forecasts than country-specific time-series models in a Bayesian framework. This result holds for most countries and forecast horizons as well as for several country groups.
Originalsprache | Englisch |
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Seiten (von - bis) | 81 - 84 |
Fachzeitschrift | Economics Letters |
Jahrgang | 133 |
Publikationsstatus | Veröffentlicht - 1 Nov. 2015 |