Global prediction of recessions

Jonas Dovern, Florian Huber

Publikation: Wissenschaftliche FachzeitschriftOriginalbeitrag in FachzeitschriftBegutachtung


Abstract We present evidence that global vectorautoregressive (GVAR) models produce more accurate recession forecasts than country-specific time-series models in a Bayesian framework. This result holds for most countries and forecast horizons as well as for several country groups.
Seiten (von - bis)81 - 84
FachzeitschriftEconomics Letters
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 1 Nov. 2015

Dieses zitieren