Improving predictive validity of choice-based conjoint models

Martin Natter, Markus Feurstein

Publikation: Working/Discussion PaperWU Working Paper

27 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Up to date, it is unclear how Choice-Based Conjoint (CBC) models perform in terms of forecasting (external) real world aggregate shop data. In this contribution, we measure the performance of a Latent Class CBC model - not with an experimental holdout sample - but with aggregate real world scanning data. We find that the CBC model does not accurately predict real world market shares. In order to improve the forecasting performance, we propose a correction scheme based on external scanner data. Our analysis based on 8 brands shows that the use of the proposed correction vector improves the performance measure considerably. (author's abstract)

Publikationsreihe

ReiheWorking Papers SFB "Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science"
Nummer50

WU Working Paper Reihe

  • Working Papers SFB \Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science\

Zitat