Is Federer Stronger in a Tournament Without Nadal? An Evaluation of Odds and Seedings for Wimbledon 2009

Christoph Leitner; Achim Zeileis; Kurt Hornik

doi:10.57938/803ab3b1-52d7-46e0-80e1-878b3f115187

Is Federer Stronger in a Tournament Without Nadal? An Evaluation of Odds and Seedings for Wimbledon 2009

Christoph Leitner, Achim Zeileis, Kurt Hornik

Publikation: Working/Discussion Paper › WU Working Paper

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Abstract

Wimbledon is one of the most popular annual sports tournament. In the Gentlemen's Single 2009 the top seeded and defending champion Rafael Nadal withdrew from the tournament due to injury days prior to the tournament. Here, we try to analyze the effects of Nadal's withdrawal especially on the ability/strength of the main competitor Roger Federer by using bookmakers expectancies to estimate the unknown abilities of the players and compare them for two different odds sets. The comparison shows that the bookmakers did not incorporate Nadal's withdrawal adequately, assigning too high expected winning probabilities to Federer and Murray.

Originalsprache	Englisch
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.57938/803ab3b1-52d7-46e0-80e1-878b3f115187
Publikationsstatus	Veröffentlicht - 1 Nov. 2009

Publikationsreihe

Reihe	Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics
Nummer	94

WU Working Paper Reihe

Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics

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10.57938/803ab3b1-52d7-46e0-80e1-878b3f115187Lizenz: Nicht angegeben

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1 Originalbeitrag in Fachzeitschrift

Is Federer Stronger in a Tournament Without Nadal? An Evaluation of Odds and Seedings for Wimbledon 2009
Leitner, C., Zeileis, A. & Hornik, K., 1 Mai 2009, in: Austrian Journal of Statistics. 38, 4, S. 277 - 286
Publikation: Wissenschaftliche Fachzeitschrift › Originalbeitrag in Fachzeitschrift › Begutachtung

Zitat

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Is Federer Stronger in a Tournament Without Nadal? An Evaluation of Odds and Seedings for Wimbledon 2009

Abstract

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Is Federer Stronger in a Tournament Without Nadal? An Evaluation of Odds and Seedings for Wimbledon 2009

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