Multiregional Computational General Equilibrium, and Spatial Interaction Trade Modelling: An Empirical Example.

Martin Schneider, Manfred M. Fischer

    Publikation: Working/Discussion PaperWU Working Paper

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    This paper analyses the effects of enhanced trade between Austria and its four neighbouring Central
    and Eastern European countries (Czech Republic, Slovak Republic, Hungary, Slovenia) on sectoral
    production and regional welfare in Austria. The analysis is based on two distinct modelling traditions
    at the centre of regional science. The first model (a Fischer-Johansson Model of bilateral trade flows)
    is used to predict the volume and commodity composition of future trade flows based on a long term
    income scenario. The predicted long-term increases of the trade flows are huge. Exports rise by 190 %
    and imports by 160 % (compared to 1995). The effects of these trade flows on sectoral production and
    regional welfare in Austria are simulated by means of a multiregional computable general equilibrium
    model for the Austrian economy. The model contains the 9 Federal Provinces (NUTS-II). The likely
    implications of the projected trade flows are measured in terms of real income, which can be expected
    to rise by 1.2 %. The welfare gains will not necesarily be shared equally by all Federal Provinces. The
    results indicate a clear East-West pattern with the eastern regions of Austria gaining most. (authors' abstract)
    HerausgeberWU Vienna University of Economics and Business
    PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 1 Juli 1999


    ReiheDiscussion Papers of the Institute for Economic Geography and GIScience

    WU Working Paper Reihe

    • Discussion Papers of the Institute for Economic Geography and GIScience