Non-zero trajectories for long-run net migration assumptions in global population projection models

Guy Abel

Publikation: Wissenschaftliche FachzeitschriftOriginalbeitrag in FachzeitschriftPublikationen ohne Kategorie begutachtet/nicht begutachtet

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Little attention is given to the role of migration in global population projection models.
Most demographers set future levels of net migration on trajectories towards zero in all
countries, nullifying the impact of migration on long-run projected populations. Yet as
fertility and mortality rates fall, the role of migration on future population change is
becoming more pronounced.
In this paper we develop future long-run migration scenarios to provide a range of
possible outcomes.
Our alternative migration scenarios are linked to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
(SSP), widely used in research on global environmental change. These are utilized as
inputs for a global cohort component projection model to obtain population totals up
until 2100 for all countries.
The results illustrate the important role of migration assumptions in long-run
projections, especially in post-demographic-transition countries. Further, they provide
plausible alternatives to projections based on the commonly used, but poorly justified,
convergence towards a zero net migration assumption.
Seiten (von - bis)1635-1662
FachzeitschriftDemographic Research
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 16 Mai 2018
Extern publiziertJa