Of clerks & cleaners: the heterogeneous impact of monetary policy on the US labor market

Gregor Zens, Maximilian Böck, Thomas Zörner

Publikation: Working/Discussion PaperWU Working Paper

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Abstract

In this paper we estimate the effect of monetary policy on the US labor market using disaggregated data based on large scale micro surveys. By employing a Bayesian factor-augmented vector autoregression framework, we investigate the impact of an unanticipated interest rate change on the unemployment rate in 32 occupation groups. Our results on the aggregate level are in line with the literature and point towards a strong influence of monetary policy on economic activity, overall unemployment and investment. A closer look on the disaggregated level reveals heterogeneous impacts across occupation groups. This heterogeneity can partially be explained by the amount of routine tasks and the degree of offshorability of an particular occupation group. These results suggest that workers who are highly vulnerable to medium-term and long-term developments such as automatization and offshoring are also hit disproportionately hard by short-term economic fluctuations.
OriginalspracheEnglisch
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 2019

Publikationsreihe

NameDepartment of Economics Working Paper Series
Nr.297

Österreichische Systematik der Wissenschaftszweige (ÖFOS)

  • 502025 Ökonometrie
  • 101026 Zeitreihenanalyse
  • 502047 Volkswirtschaftstheorie
  • 502018 Makroökonomie

WU Working Paper Reihe

  • Department of Economics Working Paper Series

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