TY - JOUR
T1 - Seasonal pumped hydropower storage role in responding to climate change impacts on the Brazilian electrical sector
AU - de Assis Brasil Weber, Natália
AU - Hunt, Julian David
AU - Zakeri, Behnam
AU - Smith Schneider, Paulo
AU - Asfor Parente, Fernando Sérgio
AU - Delavald Marques, Augusto
AU - Olímpio Pereira Junior, Amaro
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 The Authors
PY - 2024/5/15
Y1 - 2024/5/15
N2 - Since Brazil's major energy resources are renewable and directly related to climate factors, it is among the countries most likely of being affected by climate change. Given Brazil's high hydropower storage capacity and the strong seasonal patterns of its renewable resources, introducing Seasonal Pumped Hydropower Storage (SPHS) can help mitigate these challenges. To this end, a methodology is proposed that links the dynamic system-optimization model – MESSAGEix - to regional climate model simulations, called the Brazilian Electricity System MESSAGEix Model (BESMM). This model, with its detailed hydropower representation, is capable of integrating data from three climate change scenarios with the country's energy system. Climate change introduces a new dimension to this approach, as there is evidence of increasing the seasonal imbalance of variable renewable resources in Brazil. BESMM results suggest that SPHS can play a fundamental role in achieving a 100 % renewable matrix by 2100 in RCP 2.6 scenario, as well as enhancing the renewable energy endowment in scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. A reduction of up to 68 % of CO2 emissions is predicted in scenarios incorporating SPHS, compared to scenarios without SPHS.
AB - Since Brazil's major energy resources are renewable and directly related to climate factors, it is among the countries most likely of being affected by climate change. Given Brazil's high hydropower storage capacity and the strong seasonal patterns of its renewable resources, introducing Seasonal Pumped Hydropower Storage (SPHS) can help mitigate these challenges. To this end, a methodology is proposed that links the dynamic system-optimization model – MESSAGEix - to regional climate model simulations, called the Brazilian Electricity System MESSAGEix Model (BESMM). This model, with its detailed hydropower representation, is capable of integrating data from three climate change scenarios with the country's energy system. Climate change introduces a new dimension to this approach, as there is evidence of increasing the seasonal imbalance of variable renewable resources in Brazil. BESMM results suggest that SPHS can play a fundamental role in achieving a 100 % renewable matrix by 2100 in RCP 2.6 scenario, as well as enhancing the renewable energy endowment in scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. A reduction of up to 68 % of CO2 emissions is predicted in scenarios incorporating SPHS, compared to scenarios without SPHS.
KW - Climate change
KW - Energy variability
KW - Integrated Assessment Model
KW - Renewable energy
U2 - 10.1016/j.est.2024.111249
DO - 10.1016/j.est.2024.111249
M3 - Journal article
AN - SCOPUS:85189090884
SN - 2352-152X
VL - 87
JO - Journal of Energy Storage
JF - Journal of Energy Storage
M1 - 111249
ER -