Stalls in Africa’s fertility decline partly result from disruptions in female education

Endale Birhanu Kebede, Anne Goujon, Wolfgang Lutz

    Publikation: Wissenschaftliche FachzeitschriftOriginalbeitrag in FachzeitschriftBegutachtung

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    Population projections for sub-Saharan Africa have, over the past
    decade, been corrected upwards because in a number of countries,
    the earlier declining trends in fertility stalled around 2000. While
    most studies so far have focused on economic, political, or other
    factors around 2000, here we suggest that in addition to those
    period effects, the phenomenon also matched up with disruptions
    in the cohort trends of educational attainment of women after the
    postindependence economic and political turmoil. Disruptions
    likely resulted in a higher proportion of poorly educated women
    of childbearing age in the late 1990s and early 2000s than there
    would have been otherwise. In addition to the direct effects of
    education on lowering fertility, these less-educated female cohorts
    were also more vulnerable to adverse period effects around
    2000. To explore this hypothesis, we combine individual-level data
    from Demographic and Health Surveys for 18 African countries
    with and without fertility stalls, thus creating a pooled dataset
    of more than two million births to some 670,000 women born from
    1950 to 1995 by level of education. Statistical analyses indicate clear
    discontinuities in the improvement of educational attainment of subsequent
    cohorts of women and stronger sensitivity of less-educated
    women to period effects. We assess the magnitude of the effect of
    educational discontinuity through a comparison of the actual trends
    with counterfactual trends based on the assumption of no education
    stalls, resulting in up to half a child per woman less in 2010 and 13
    million fewer live births over the 1995–2010 period.
    Seiten (von - bis)2891 - 2896
    FachzeitschriftProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)
    PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 2019

    Österreichische Systematik der Wissenschaftszweige (ÖFOS)

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