The Economic Impact of Non-Communicable Diseases in China and India: Estimates, Projections, and Comparisons

David E. Bloom, Elizabeth Cafiero, Mark McGovern, Klaus Prettner, Anderson Stanciole, Jonathan Weiss, Samuel Bakkila, Larry Rosenberg

Publikation: Wissenschaftliche FachzeitschriftOriginalbeitrag in FachzeitschriftBegutachtung


This study provides estimates of the macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in China and India for the period 2012–2030. Our estimates are derived using the World Health Organization’s EPIC model of economic growth, which focuses on the negative effects of NCDs on labor supply and capital accumulation. We present results for the five main NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, diabetes, and mental health). Our undiscounted estimates indicate that the cost of the five main NCDs will total USD 23.03 trillion for China and USD 4.58 trillion for India (in 2010 USD). For both countries, the most costly domain is cardiovascular disease. Our analyses also reveal that the costs are much larger in China than in India mainly because of China’s higher and steeper income trajectory, and to a lesser extent its older population. Rough calculations also indicate that WHO’s best buys for addressing the challenge of NCDs are highly cost-beneficial.
Seiten (von - bis)100 - 111
FachzeitschriftJournal of the Economics of Ageing
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 2014