TY - JOUR
T1 - The Economic Impact of Non-Communicable Diseases in China and India: Estimates, Projections, and Comparisons
AU - Bloom, David E.
AU - Cafiero, Elizabeth
AU - McGovern, Mark
AU - Prettner, Klaus
AU - Stanciole, Anderson
AU - Weiss, Jonathan
AU - Bakkila, Samuel
AU - Rosenberg, Larry
PY - 2014
Y1 - 2014
N2 - This study provides estimates of the macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in China and India for the period 2012–2030. Our estimates are derived using the World Health Organization’s EPIC model of economic growth, which focuses on the negative effects of NCDs on labor supply and capital accumulation. We present results for the five main NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, diabetes, and mental health). Our undiscounted estimates indicate that the cost of the five main NCDs will total USD 23.03 trillion for China and USD 4.58 trillion for India (in 2010 USD). For both countries, the most costly domain is cardiovascular disease. Our analyses also reveal that the costs are much larger in China than in India mainly because of China’s higher and steeper income trajectory, and to a lesser extent its older population. Rough calculations also indicate that WHO’s best buys for addressing the challenge of NCDs are highly cost-beneficial.
AB - This study provides estimates of the macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in China and India for the period 2012–2030. Our estimates are derived using the World Health Organization’s EPIC model of economic growth, which focuses on the negative effects of NCDs on labor supply and capital accumulation. We present results for the five main NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, diabetes, and mental health). Our undiscounted estimates indicate that the cost of the five main NCDs will total USD 23.03 trillion for China and USD 4.58 trillion for India (in 2010 USD). For both countries, the most costly domain is cardiovascular disease. Our analyses also reveal that the costs are much larger in China than in India mainly because of China’s higher and steeper income trajectory, and to a lesser extent its older population. Rough calculations also indicate that WHO’s best buys for addressing the challenge of NCDs are highly cost-beneficial.
UR - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212828X14000206
U2 - 10.1016/j.jeoa.2014.08.003
DO - 10.1016/j.jeoa.2014.08.003
M3 - Journal article
SN - 2212-828X
VL - 4
SP - 100
EP - 111
JO - Journal of the Economics of Ageing
JF - Journal of the Economics of Ageing
ER -