The future of human reproduction: Will birth rates recover or continue to fall?

Wolfgang Lutz

Publikation: Wissenschaftliche FachzeitschriftOriginalbeitrag in Fachzeitschrift


Today more than half of the world population has fertility
below the replacement level, i.e., less than two
surviving children per woman; and there are now several
countries where fertility has dropped to levels that are of
serious concern to policy-makers. All major population
projections currently assume that fertility in the countries
with the lowest levels will recover or at least not decline
any further. Should birth rates, however, defy these projections
and continue to decline, then these populations would
shrink and age much more rapidly than currently assumed.
The "low fertility trap hypothesis" discussed in this contribution
gives plausible reasons why indeed fewer and fewer
people may want to have children in the future.
Seiten (von - bis)15 - 21
FachzeitschriftAgeing Horizons
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 1 Juni 2007