The macroeconomic effects of international uncertainty shocks

Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Florian Huber, Luca Onorante

Publikation: Working/Discussion PaperWU Working Paper

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Abstract

We propose a large-scale Bayesian VAR model with factor stochastic volatility to investigate the macroeconomic consequences of international uncertainty shocks on the G7 countries. The factor structure enables us to identify an international uncertainty shock by assuming that it is the factor most correlated with forecast errors related to equity markets and permits fast sampling of the model. Our findings suggest that the estimated uncertainty factor is strongly related to global equity price volatility, closely tracking other prominent measures commonly adopted to assess global uncertainty. The dynamic responses of a set of macroeconomic and financial variables show that an international uncertainty shock exerts a powerful effect on all economies and variables under consideration.
OriginalspracheEnglisch
ErscheinungsortVienna
HerausgeberWU Vienna University of Economics and Business
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 1 März 2017

Publikationsreihe

NameDepartment of Economics Working Paper Series
Nr.245

WU Working Paper Reihe

  • Department of Economics Working Paper Series

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