Uncertainty and Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe

Publikation: Wissenschaftliche FachzeitschriftOriginalbeitrag in FachzeitschriftBegutachtung

Abstract

We assess empirically the role that uncertainty plays as a determinant of business cycle synchronization dynamics in the European Monetary Union. Using a time-varying measure of business cycle synchronization and Bayesian model averaging methods, we find that increase in uncertainty tends to robustly predict desynchronization, in particular for countries whose business cycles are not in line with those of the rest of the monetary union.
OriginalspracheEnglisch
Seiten (von - bis)1047 - 1053
FachzeitschriftApplied Economics Letters
Jahrgang29
Ausgabenummer11
DOIs
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 2022

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