TY - JOUR
T1 - Value of a Scheduled Duration Quantified in Terms of Equivalent Numbers of Historical Cases
AU - Dexter, F.
AU - Ledolter, Johannes
AU - Tiwari, V.
AU - Epstein, R
PY - 2013
Y1 - 2013
N2 - Probabilistic estimates of case duration are important for several decisions on and soon before the day of surgery, including filling or preventing a hole in the operating room schedule, and comparing the durations of cases between operating rooms with and without use of specialized equipment to prevent resource conflicts. Bayesian methods use a weighted combination of the surgeon's estimated operating room time and historical data as a prediction for the median duration of the next case of the same combination. Process variability around that prediction (i.e., the coefficient of variation) is estimated using data from similar procedures. A Bayesian method relies on a parameter, τ, that specifies the equivalence between the scheduled estimate and the information contained in the median of a certain number of historical data. METHODS: Times from operating room entrance to exit ("case duration") were obtained for multiple procedures and surgeons at 3 U.S. academic hospitals. A new method for estimating the parameter τ was developed.
AB - Probabilistic estimates of case duration are important for several decisions on and soon before the day of surgery, including filling or preventing a hole in the operating room schedule, and comparing the durations of cases between operating rooms with and without use of specialized equipment to prevent resource conflicts. Bayesian methods use a weighted combination of the surgeon's estimated operating room time and historical data as a prediction for the median duration of the next case of the same combination. Process variability around that prediction (i.e., the coefficient of variation) is estimated using data from similar procedures. A Bayesian method relies on a parameter, τ, that specifies the equivalence between the scheduled estimate and the information contained in the median of a certain number of historical data. METHODS: Times from operating room entrance to exit ("case duration") were obtained for multiple procedures and surgeons at 3 U.S. academic hospitals. A new method for estimating the parameter τ was developed.
UR - http://journals.lww.com/anesthesia-analgesia/Abstract/2013/07000/Value_of_a_Scheduled_Duration_Quantified_in_Terms.31.aspx
U2 - 10.1213/ANE.0b013e318291d388
DO - 10.1213/ANE.0b013e318291d388
M3 - Journal article
SN - 0003-2999
VL - 117
SP - 205
EP - 210
JO - Anesthesia & Analgesia
JF - Anesthesia & Analgesia
IS - 1
ER -