Value of a Scheduled Duration Quantified in Terms of Equivalent Numbers of Historical Cases

F. Dexter, Johannes Ledolter, V. Tiwari, R Epstein

Publikation: Wissenschaftliche FachzeitschriftOriginalbeitrag in FachzeitschriftBegutachtung

Abstract

Probabilistic estimates of case duration are important for several decisions on and soon before the day of surgery, including filling or preventing a hole in the operating room schedule, and comparing the durations of cases between operating rooms with and without use of specialized equipment to prevent resource conflicts. Bayesian methods use a weighted combination of the surgeon's estimated operating room time and historical data as a prediction for the median duration of the next case of the same combination. Process variability around that prediction (i.e., the coefficient of variation) is estimated using data from similar procedures. A Bayesian method relies on a parameter, τ, that specifies the equivalence between the scheduled estimate and the information contained in the median of a certain number of historical data. METHODS: Times from operating room entrance to exit ("case duration") were obtained for multiple procedures and surgeons at 3 U.S. academic hospitals. A new method for estimating the parameter τ was developed.
OriginalspracheEnglisch
Seiten (von - bis)205 - 210
FachzeitschriftAnesthesia & Analgesia
Jahrgang117
Ausgabenummer1
DOIs
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 2013

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