TY - UNPB
T1 - When is the electric vehicle market self-sustaining? Evidence from Norway
AU - Koch, Nicolas
AU - Ritter, Nolan
AU - Rohlf, Alexander
AU - Scarazzato, Francesco
PY - 2021/12/1
Y1 - 2021/12/1
N2 - This paper investigates whether the world’s most mature electric vehicle (EV)market in Norway has overcome critical mass constraints and can achievesustainable long-term equilibria without subsidies. We estimate astructural model that allows for multiple equilibria emerging from the interdependence between EV demand and charging station supply. We first estimate the resulting indirect network effects using an instrumental variable approach. Then, we simulate long-term market outcomes for each of the 422 Norwegian municipalities. We find that almost 20% of all municipalities faced critical mass constraints in the earliest stage of the market. Half of them are effectively trapped in a zero-adoption equilibrium. However, in the maturing market, all municipalities have passed critical mass. Overall, about 60% of the Norwegian population now lives in municipalities with a high-adoption equilibrium, even if subsidies were removed. This suggests that critical mass constraints do no longer justify the provision of subsidies.
AB - This paper investigates whether the world’s most mature electric vehicle (EV)market in Norway has overcome critical mass constraints and can achievesustainable long-term equilibria without subsidies. We estimate astructural model that allows for multiple equilibria emerging from the interdependence between EV demand and charging station supply. We first estimate the resulting indirect network effects using an instrumental variable approach. Then, we simulate long-term market outcomes for each of the 422 Norwegian municipalities. We find that almost 20% of all municipalities faced critical mass constraints in the earliest stage of the market. Half of them are effectively trapped in a zero-adoption equilibrium. However, in the maturing market, all municipalities have passed critical mass. Overall, about 60% of the Norwegian population now lives in municipalities with a high-adoption equilibrium, even if subsidies were removed. This suggests that critical mass constraints do no longer justify the provision of subsidies.
U2 - 10.57938/df307c25-97da-491f-af1f-2a768b5966f2
DO - 10.57938/df307c25-97da-491f-af1f-2a768b5966f2
M3 - WU Working Paper
T3 - Department of Economics Working Paper Series
BT - When is the electric vehicle market self-sustaining? Evidence from Norway
PB - WU Vienna University of Economics and Business
CY - Vienna
ER -