Efficient Bayesian Inference for Stochastic Volatility Models

Activity: Talk or presentationScience to science

Description

This talk considers Bayesian inference for stochastic volatility (SV) models using efficient MCMC inference. Our method is based on the popular approximation of the log $\chi^2$-distribuion by a mixture of 10 normal distribution which allows to sample the latent volatilities simultaneously, however, we introduce several improvements. First, rather than using standard forward-filtering-backward sampling to draw the volatilities, we apply a sparse Cholesky factor algorithm to the high-dimensional joint density of all volatilities. This reduces computing time considerably because it allows joint sampling without running a filter. Second, we consider various reparameterizations of the augmented SV model. Under the standard parametrization, augmented MCMC estimation turns out to be inefficient, in particular for the volatility of volatility parameter in the latent state equation. By considering a non-centered version of the SV model, this parameter is moved to the observation equation. Using MCMC estimation for this transformed model reduces the inefficiency factor in particular for volatility of volatility parameter considerably.
Period10 Dec 201012 Dec 2010
Event title4th CSDA International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics (CFE'10)
Event typeUnkonwn
Degree of RecognitionInternational

Austrian Classification of Fields of Science and Technology (ÖFOS)

  • 101026 Time series analysis
  • 502025 Econometrics
  • 101018 Statistics
  • 102022 Software development