DescriptionThe creation of a market in so-called European Safe Bonds (ESBies) is a highly debated proposal to improve the European monetary system. From a credit risk perspective, ESBies form the senior tranche of a CDO backed by a diversified portfolio of sovereign bonds from all members of the euro area. We propose a novel credit risk model for the hazard rates of the obligors to analyze price dynamics and assess the market risk associated to such products. Our model captures salient features of the credit spread dynamics of euro area member states and is at the same time fairly tractable. We consider a reduced-form model with conditionally independent default times; the default intensities of the different obligors are modelled by CIR-type jump processes whose mean-reversion levels and jump intensities are modulated by a common Markov process. Two special cases, one where the modulating process is a finite Markov chain and another one where it is an affine process, give rise to semi-explicit (explicit up to the solution of ODE systems) pricing formulae. This in turn allows computationally tractable calibration of the underlying hazard rates via single-name credit products. The pricing of credit portfolio products is done by Fourier inversion methods. Additionally, we provide hedging results for the junior tranche of the underlying bond portfolio.
|Period||9 Sept 2019 → 11 Sept 2019|
|Event title||Vienna Congress on Mathematical Finance|
|Degree of Recognition||National|
Austrian Classification of Fields of Science and Technology (ÖFOS)
- 101007 Financial mathematics