A Microanalytical Simulation to Predict the Long-Term Evolution of Employment Biographies in Austria: The Demographics Module

Marcus Wurzer, Reinhold Hatzinger

Publication: Scientific journalJournal articlepeer-review

Abstract

The well-known problems of decreasing birth rates and population
ageing represent a major challenge for the Austrian pension system. It is
expected that the group of pensioners will grow steadily in the future, while
the proportion of people that support them - the taxpayers - will shrink. In
this regard, microsimulation provides a valuable tool to identify the impact
of various policy measures. With microsimulation, it is not only possible
to predict cross-sectional data (e.g., the distribution of age groups in 2050),
but also to simulate lifecourses of people, providing longitudinal outcomes.
The demographics module is the first in a series of modules that are part of
a microsimulation prototype. This prototype is being developed in order to
predict the long-term evolution of Employment Biographies in Austria.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)241 - 254
JournalAustrian Journal of Statistics
Volume38
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - 1 Apr 2009

Cite this