Climate change, international migration, and interstate conflicts

Interstate conflicts are complex and often have a multitude of causes. These factors can be social, economic, or cultural. One social factor receiving little attention in the literature is international migration. This paper uses climate shocks as a driver of emigration to study the causal impact of immigration on conflicts. We find that climate-induced immigration increases the probability that the destination country initiates a conflict against the origin. This effect is moderated by attitudes in the receiving country and features of the specific flows. The results imply that countries severely impacted by climate change may face an exodus of migrants and be forced to confront conflicts initiated by the destination countries of these migrants.