Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes

Jarmo S. Kikstra; Adriano Vinca; Francesco Lovat; Benigna Boza-Kiss; Bas van Ruijven; Charlie Wilson; Joeri Rogelj; Behnam Zakeri; Oliver Fricko; Keywan Riahi

doi:10.1038/s41560-021-00904-8

Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes

Jarmo S. Kikstra^*
, Adriano Vinca
, Francesco Lovat
, Benigna Boza-Kiss
, Bas van Ruijven
, Charlie Wilson
, Joeri Rogelj
, Behnam Zakeri
, Oliver Fricko
, Keywan Riahi

^*Corresponding author for this work

Publication: Scientific journal › Journal article › peer-review

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic caused radical temporary breaks with past energy use trends. How post-pandemic recovery will impact the longer-term energy transition is unclear. Here we present a set of global COVID-19 shock-and-recovery scenarios that systematically explore the effect of demand changes persisting. Our pathways project final energy demand reductions of 1–36 EJ yr⁻¹ by 2025 and cumulative CO₂ emission reductions of 14–45 GtCO₂ by 2030. Uncertainty ranges depend on the depth and duration of the economic downturn and demand-side changes. Recovering from the pandemic with energy-efficient practices embedded in new patterns of travel, work, consumption and production reduces climate mitigation challenges. A low energy demand recovery reduces carbon prices for a 1.5 °C-consistent pathway by 19%, lowers energy supply investments until 2030 by US$1.8 trillion and softens the pressure to rapidly upscale renewable energy technologies.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1114-1123
Number of pages	10
Journal	Nature Energy
Volume	6
Issue number	12
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00904-8
Publication status	Published - Dec 2021
Externally published	Yes

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.

Access to Document

10.1038/s41560-021-00904-8Licence: Unspecified

Cite this

@article{0ed5d6bd5efb4cbca8c81328cb52f427,

title = "Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes",

abstract = "The COVID-19 pandemic caused radical temporary breaks with past energy use trends. How post-pandemic recovery will impact the longer-term energy transition is unclear. Here we present a set of global COVID-19 shock-and-recovery scenarios that systematically explore the effect of demand changes persisting. Our pathways project final energy demand reductions of 1–36 EJ yr−1 by 2025 and cumulative CO2 emission reductions of 14–45 GtCO2 by 2030. Uncertainty ranges depend on the depth and duration of the economic downturn and demand-side changes. Recovering from the pandemic with energy-efficient practices embedded in new patterns of travel, work, consumption and production reduces climate mitigation challenges. A low energy demand recovery reduces carbon prices for a 1.5 °C-consistent pathway by 19\%, lowers energy supply investments until 2030 by US\$1.8 trillion and softens the pressure to rapidly upscale renewable energy technologies.",

author = "Kikstra, \{Jarmo S.\} and Adriano Vinca and Francesco Lovat and Benigna Boza-Kiss and \{van Ruijven\}, Bas and Charlie Wilson and Joeri Rogelj and Behnam Zakeri and Oliver Fricko and Keywan Riahi",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.",

year = "2021",

month = dec,

doi = "10.1038/s41560-021-00904-8",

language = "English",

volume = "6",

pages = "1114--1123",

journal = "Nature Energy",

issn = "2058-7546",

publisher = "Springer Nature",

number = "12",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes

AU - Kikstra, Jarmo S.

AU - Vinca, Adriano

AU - Lovat, Francesco

AU - Boza-Kiss, Benigna

AU - van Ruijven, Bas

AU - Wilson, Charlie

AU - Rogelj, Joeri

AU - Zakeri, Behnam

AU - Fricko, Oliver

AU - Riahi, Keywan

PY - 2021/12

Y1 - 2021/12

N2 - The COVID-19 pandemic caused radical temporary breaks with past energy use trends. How post-pandemic recovery will impact the longer-term energy transition is unclear. Here we present a set of global COVID-19 shock-and-recovery scenarios that systematically explore the effect of demand changes persisting. Our pathways project final energy demand reductions of 1–36 EJ yr−1 by 2025 and cumulative CO2 emission reductions of 14–45 GtCO2 by 2030. Uncertainty ranges depend on the depth and duration of the economic downturn and demand-side changes. Recovering from the pandemic with energy-efficient practices embedded in new patterns of travel, work, consumption and production reduces climate mitigation challenges. A low energy demand recovery reduces carbon prices for a 1.5 °C-consistent pathway by 19%, lowers energy supply investments until 2030 by US$1.8 trillion and softens the pressure to rapidly upscale renewable energy technologies.

AB - The COVID-19 pandemic caused radical temporary breaks with past energy use trends. How post-pandemic recovery will impact the longer-term energy transition is unclear. Here we present a set of global COVID-19 shock-and-recovery scenarios that systematically explore the effect of demand changes persisting. Our pathways project final energy demand reductions of 1–36 EJ yr−1 by 2025 and cumulative CO2 emission reductions of 14–45 GtCO2 by 2030. Uncertainty ranges depend on the depth and duration of the economic downturn and demand-side changes. Recovering from the pandemic with energy-efficient practices embedded in new patterns of travel, work, consumption and production reduces climate mitigation challenges. A low energy demand recovery reduces carbon prices for a 1.5 °C-consistent pathway by 19%, lowers energy supply investments until 2030 by US$1.8 trillion and softens the pressure to rapidly upscale renewable energy technologies.

U2 - 10.1038/s41560-021-00904-8

DO - 10.1038/s41560-021-00904-8

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:85116914604

SN - 2058-7546

VL - 6

SP - 1114

EP - 1123

JO - Nature Energy

JF - Nature Energy

IS - 12

ER -