Comparing net zero pathways across the Atlantic A model inter-comparison exercise between the Energy Modeling Forum 37 and the European Climate and Energy Modeling Forum

Luis Sarmiento*, Johannes Emmerling, Robert Pietzcker, Vassilis Daioglou, Francesco Dalla Longa, Mark M. Dekker, Laurent Drouet, Amir Fattahi, Panagiotis Fragkos, Hauke T. J Henke, Oliver Fricko, Leonard Göke, Volker Krey, Ellie Lochner, Gunnar Luderer, Nick Macaluso, Kowan T. V O'Keefe, Kathleen M. Kennedy, Gokul Iyer, Renato RodriguesEric Stewart, William Usher, Bob van der Zwaan, Detlef van Vuuren, Eleftheria Zisarou, Behnam Zakeri

*Corresponding author for this work

Publication: Scientific journalJournal articlepeer-review

Abstract

Europe and North America account for 32 % of current carbon emissions. Due to distinct legacy systems, energy infrastructure, socioeconomic development, and energy resource endowment, both regions have different policy and technological pathways to reach net zero by the mid-century. Against this background, our paper examines the results from the net zero emission scenarios for Europe and North America that emerged from the collaboration of the European and American Energy Modeling Forums. In our analysis, we perform an inter-comparison of various integrated assessments and bottom-up energy system models. A clear qualitative consensus emerges on five main points. First, Europe and the United States reach net zero targets with electrification, demand-side reductions, and carbon capture and sequestration technologies. Second, the use of carbon capture and sequestration is more predominant in the United States due to a steeper decarbonization schedule. Third, the buildings sector is the easiest to electrify in both regions. Fourth, the industrial sector is the hardest to electrify in the United States and transportation in Europe. Fifth, in both regions, the transition in the energy mix is driven by the substitution of coal and natural gas with solar and wind, but to a different extent.

Original languageEnglish
Article number100144
JournalEnergy and Climate Change
Volume5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2024

Keywords

  • 100 % renewables
  • Carbon dioxide removal (CDR)
  • Climate change mitigation
  • Electrification
  • Energy Modeling Forum
  • Energy transition pathways
  • Europe
  • European Climate & Energy Modeling Forum
  • Net zero
  • Renewable energy system models
  • United States

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