Dynamic modelling of corporate credit ratings and defaults

Laura Vana Gür, Kurt Hornik

Publication: Scientific journalJournal articlepeer-review

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In this article, we propose a longitudinal multivariate model for binary and ordinal outcomes to describe the dynamic relationship among firm defaults and credit ratings from various raters. The latent probability of default is modelled as a dynamic process which contains additive firm-specific effects, a latent systematic factor representing the business cycle and idiosyncratic observed and unobserved factors. The joint set-up also facilitates the estimation of a bias for each rater which captures changes in the rating standards of the rating agencies. Bayesian estimation techniques are employed to estimate the parameters of interest. Several models are compared based on their out-of-sample prediction ability and we find that the proposed model outperforms simpler specifications. The joint framework is illustrated on a sample of publicly traded US corporates which are rated by at least one of the credit rating agencies S&P, Moody’s and Fitch during the period 1995–2014.
Original languageEnglish
JournalStatistical Modelling
Publication statusPublished - 2021

Austrian Classification of Fields of Science and Technology (ÖFOS)

  • 101
  • 102022 Software development
  • 101015 Operations research
  • 101018 Statistics
  • 101019 Stochastics
  • 502009 Corporate finance

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