Global prediction of recessions

Jonas Dovern, Florian Huber

Publication: Scientific journalJournal articlepeer-review


Abstract We present evidence that global vectorautoregressive (GVAR) models produce more accurate recession forecasts than country-specific time-series models in a Bayesian framework. This result holds for most countries and forecast horizons as well as for several country groups.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)81 - 84
JournalEconomics Letters
Publication statusPublished - 1 Nov 2015

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