Is Federer Stronger in a Tournament Without Nadal? An Evaluation of Odds and Seedings for Wimbledon 2009

Publication: Working/Discussion PaperWU Working Paper

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Abstract

Wimbledon is one of the most popular annual sports tournament. In the Gentlemen's Single 2009 the top seeded and defending champion Rafael Nadal withdrew from the tournament due to injury days prior to the tournament. Here, we try to analyze the effects of Nadal's withdrawal especially on the ability/strength of the main competitor Roger Federer by using bookmakers expectancies to estimate the unknown abilities of the players and compare them for two different odds sets. The comparison shows that the bookmakers did not incorporate Nadal's withdrawal adequately, assigning too high expected winning probabilities to Federer and Murray.
Original languageEnglish
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Nov 2009

Publication series

SeriesResearch Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics
Number94

WU Working Paper Series

  • Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics

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