Is Federer Stronger in a Tournament Without Nadal? An Evaluation of Odds and Seedings for Wimbledon 2009

Christoph Leitner; Achim Zeileis; Kurt Hornik

doi:10.57938/803ab3b1-52d7-46e0-80e1-878b3f115187

Is Federer Stronger in a Tournament Without Nadal? An Evaluation of Odds and Seedings for Wimbledon 2009

Christoph Leitner
, Achim Zeileis
, Kurt Hornik

Publication: Working/Discussion Paper › WU Working Paper and Case

76 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Wimbledon is one of the most popular annual sports tournament. In the Gentlemen's Single 2009 the top seeded and defending champion Rafael Nadal withdrew from the tournament due to injury days prior to the tournament. Here, we try to analyze the effects of Nadal's withdrawal especially on the ability/strength of the main competitor Roger Federer by using bookmakers expectancies to estimate the unknown abilities of the players and compare them for two different odds sets. The comparison shows that the bookmakers did not incorporate Nadal's withdrawal adequately, assigning too high expected winning probabilities to Federer and Murray.

Original language	English
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.57938/803ab3b1-52d7-46e0-80e1-878b3f115187
Publication status	Published - 1 Nov 2009

Publication series

Series	Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics
Number	94

WU Working Papes and Cases

Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics

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10.57938/803ab3b1-52d7-46e0-80e1-878b3f115187Licence: Unspecified

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Is Federer Stronger in a Tournament Without Nadal? An Evaluation of Odds and Seedings for Wimbledon 2009
Leitner, C., Zeileis, A. & Hornik, K., 1 May 2009, In: Austrian Journal of Statistics. 38, 4, p. 277 - 286
Publication: Scientific journal › Journal article › peer-review

Cite this

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Is Federer Stronger in a Tournament Without Nadal? An Evaluation of Odds and Seedings for Wimbledon 2009

Abstract

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WU Working Papes and Cases

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Is Federer Stronger in a Tournament Without Nadal? An Evaluation of Odds and Seedings for Wimbledon 2009

Cite this