Is the demographic dividend an education dividend?

Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Wolfgang Lutz, Warren Sanderson

Publication: Scientific journalJournal articlepeer-review

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Abstract

The effect of changes in age structure on economic growth has been widely studied in the demography and population economics literature. The beneficial effect of changes in age structure after a decrease in fertility has become known as the “demographic dividend.” In this article, we reassess the empirical evidence on the associations among economic growth, changes in age structure, labor force participation, and educational attainment. Using a global panel of countries, we find that after the effect of human capital dynamics is controlled for, no evidence exists that changes in age structure affect labor productivity. Our results imply that improvements in educational attainment are the key to explaining productivity and income growth and that a substantial portion of the demographic dividend is an education dividend.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)299 - 315
JournalDemography
Volume51
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014

Austrian Classification of Fields of Science and Technology (ÖFOS)

  • 504006 Demography

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