Mothers' long-run career patterns after first birth

Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter, Christoph Pamminger, Andrea Weber, Rudolf Winter-Ebmer

Publication: Scientific journalJournal articlepeer-review


Using Bayesian Markov chain clustering analysis we investigate career paths of Austrian women after their first birth. This data-driven method allows characterizing long-term career paths of mothers over up to 19 years by transitions between parental leave, non-employment and different forms of employment. We classify women into five cluster groups with very different long-run career trajectories after childbearing. We further model group membership with a multinomial specification within the finite mixture model. This approach gives insights into the determinants of long-run outcomes. In particular, giving birth at an older age appears to be associated with very diverse outcomes: it is related to higher odds of dropping out of the labour force, on the one hand, but also to higher odds of reaching a high wage career track, on the other hand.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)707 - 725
JournalJournal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society)
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - 2016

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