Predicting the supply and demand shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic: An industry and occupation perspective

Anton Pichler, Penny Mealy, J. Doyne Farmer, R. Maria del Rio-Chanona, Francois Lafond

Publication: Popular science articles (i.e. magazines)Popular science article

Abstract

Many researchers have studied the adverse impacts of the negative supply shock due to measures taken to combat the spread of COVID-19. This column provides estimates of occupation- and industry-specific effects of both the supply and the demand shock for the US. US GDP is predicted to decline by 22% compared to the pre-COVID-19 period, and 24% of US jobs are likely to be vulnerable. The adverse effects are further estimated to be strongest for low-wage workers who might face employment reductions of up to 42% while high-wage workers are estimated to experience a 7% decrease.
Original languageEnglish
Specialist publicationVOX CEPR's Policy Portal
Publication statusPublished - 2020
Externally publishedYes

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