Projecting Long-Term Primary Energy Consumption. Department of Economics Working Paper Series, 152. WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna

Zsuzsanna Csereklyei, Stefan Humer

Publication: Working/Discussion PaperWU Working Paper

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In this paper we use the long-term empirical relationship among primary energy consumption,
real income, physical capital, population and technology, obtained by averaged
panel error correction models, to project the long-term primary energy consumption of 56
countries up to 2100. In forecasting long-term primary energy consumption, we work with four
different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Scenarios (SSPs) developed for the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) framework, assuming different challenges to adaptation and
mitigation. We find that in all scenarios, China, the United States and India will be the largest
energy consumers, while highly growing countries will also significantly contribute to energy
use. We observe for most scenarios a sharp increase in global energy consumption, followed
by a levelling-out and a decrease towards the second half of the century. The reasons behind
this pattern are not only slower population growth, but also infrastructure saturation and
increased total factor productivity. This means, as countries move towards more knowledge
based societies, and higher energy efficiency, their primary energy usage is likely to decrease as
a result. Global primary energy consumption is expected however to increase significantly in
the coming decades, thus increasing the pressure on policy makers to cope with the questions
of energy security and greenhouse gas mitigation at the same time. (authors' abstract)
Original languageEnglish
Publication statusPublished - 1 Mar 2013

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NameDepartment of Economics Working Paper Series

WU Working Paper Series

  • Department of Economics Working Paper Series

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