Relating Cash Flow Forecast Errors to Revision Patterns

Florian Knöll, Verena Dorner, Thomas Setzer

Publication: Chapter in book/Conference proceedingContribution to conference proceedings


Our study closes a research gap on cash flow revisions in large, multinational corporations. Specifically, we explore how revisions relate to forecast accuracy and how patterns in revision processes can be quantified and leveraged to reduce prediction errors in forecasts of foreign exchange exposure. We suggest novel metrics to determine patterns in revision processes related to the concentration of revision volume and show that these measures have higher explanatory power with regard to how forecast error is related to forecast revisions (point on time, volume) and exposure than previously used measures solely relying on correlations among revisions and error. Our results suggest that accounting for these patterns improves the accuracy of foreign exchange exposure forecasts.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationMultikonferenz Wirtschaftsinformatik (MKWI) 2016: Prescriptive Analytics in IS
Editors V. Nissen, D. Stelzer, S. Straßburger, D. Fischer
Place of PublicationIlmenau, Germany
Pages1217 - 1228
Publication statusPublished - 2016

Austrian Classification of Fields of Science and Technology (ÖFOS)

  • 502050 Business informatics

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