Supervised Machine Learning Approach for Predicting Cardiovascular Complications Risk in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus

Diabetes mellitus, particularly type-2 diabetes, remains a prevalent health issue, raising concerns due to its associated risk of complications. Among these, cardiovascular complications pose a significant threat, exhibiting high morbidity and mortality rates. Health screening plays a pivotal role in stratifying the risk levels of diabetes patients, facilitating proactive measures to prevent the progression of complications. As such, the primary objective of this study is to develop a predictive model system for assessing cardiovascular risk in diabetes patients. Our study used the Cardiovascular Disease dataset and conducts experiments with various supervised machine learning algorithms, such as Naive Bayes, decision tree, random forest, AdaBoost, and XG- Boost. The results reveal that ensemble learning algorithms based on boosting, particularly AdaBoost and XGBoost, outperform other supervised machine learning methods. However, even with the best performance achieved using the dataset, the accuracy stands at 0.71, and the F -1 score is 0.69, which is still acceptable for screening purposes. Although these results provide valuable insights, indicating individuals at higher risk for cardiovascular complications in diabetes, further improvements are needed to enhance early prevention strategies.