The irrelevance of stated plans in predicting farm successions in Finland

Christoph Weiss, Minna Väre, Kyösti Pietola

Publication: Scientific journalJournal articlepeer-review

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Abstract

This study estimates the value of farmers stated succession plans in predicting revealed succession decisions. The stated succession plan exists when a farmer answers in a survey questionnaire that the farm is going to be transferred to a new entrant within a five year period. The succession is revealed when the farm is transferred to a successor. The stated and revealed behaviour is estimated as a recursive Binomial-Probit- Model, which accounts for censoring of the decision variables and controls for a potential correlation between the estimating equations. The results suggest that the succession plans, as stated by elderly farmers in the questionnaires, do not provide information that is significant and valuable in predicting the true, revealed successions, once certain farm and farmer characteristics are controlled for.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)81 - 100
JournalAgricultural and Food Science
Volume19
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2010

Austrian Classification of Fields of Science and Technology (ÖFOS)

  • 405002 Agricultural economics

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