The 'Shadow of Succession'. A Non-Parametric Matching Approach.

The paper analyses the relationship between succession and firm performance. Applying a non-parametric matching approach on a panel of roughly 4,000 Austrian family firms we evaluate the impact of past succession as well as future succession plans on employment growth. Analysing succession plans, we do not find a 'shadow of succession' effect. No significant difference in employment growth is found between firms that plan to transfer the firm in the next ten years and those who do not. In contrast, past succession exerts a significant and positive employment growth effect which becomes stronger over time. Thus, our findings provide support for the existence of a positive employment shadow after a transfer, whereas the shadow of succession hypothesis has to be rejected prior to transition.