Threshold cointegration and adaptive shrinkage

Florian Huber, Thomas Zörner

Publication: Working/Discussion PaperWU Working Paper

16 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

This paper considers Bayesian estimation of the threshold vector error correction (TVECM) model in moderate to large dimensions. Using the lagged cointegrating error as a threshold variable gives rise to additional difficulties that are typically solved by relying on large sample approximations. Relying on Markov chain Monte Carlo methods we circumvent these issues by avoiding computationally prohibitive estimation strategies like the grid search. Due to the proliferation of parameters we use novel global-local shrinkage priors in the spirit of Griffin and Brown (2010). We illustrate the merits of our approach in an application to five exchange rates vis-á-vis the US dollar and assess whether a given currency is over or undervalued. Moreover, we perform a forecasting comparison to investigate whether it pays off to adopt a non-linear modeling approach relative to a set of simpler benchmark models.
Original languageEnglish
Publication statusPublished - 2017

Publication series

NameDepartment of Economics Working Paper Series
No.250

Austrian Classification of Fields of Science and Technology (ÖFOS)

  • 502025 Econometrics
  • 502047 Economic theory
  • 502018 Macroeconomics

WU Working Paper Series

  • Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Cite this