Trade Balance Dynamics and Exchange Rates: In Search of the J-Curve Using a Structural Gravity Approach

Harald Badinger, Aurélien Fichet de Clairfontaine

Publication: Working/Discussion PaperWU Working Paper

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Abstract

This paper uses a structural gravity approach, specifying currency movements as trade cost component to derive an empirical trade balance model, which incorporates multilateral resistance terms and accounts for the cross-country variation in the exchange rate pass-through into import and export prices. The model is estimated using quarterly bilateral trade flows between 47 countries over the period 2010Q1-2017Q2, disaggregated into 97 commodity groups. Our results support the existence of an "aggregate'' J-curve, pooled over commodity groups; at the same time they point to considerable heterogeneity in the trade balance dynamics across industries below the surface of aggregate data.
Original languageEnglish
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2018

Publication series

SeriesDepartment of Economics Working Paper Series
Number256

Austrian Classification of Fields of Science and Technology (ÖFOS)

  • 507026 Economic geography
  • 502016 SME-research

WU Working Paper Series

  • Department of Economics Working Paper Series

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