Uncertainty and Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe

Publication: Scientific journalJournal articlepeer-review


We assess empirically the role that uncertainty plays as a determinant of business cycle synchronization dynamics in the European Monetary Union. Using a time-varying measure of business cycle synchronization and Bayesian model averaging methods, we find that increase in uncertainty tends to robustly predict desynchronization, in particular for countries whose business cycles are not in line with those of the rest of the monetary union.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1047 - 1053
JournalApplied Economics Letters
Issue number11
Publication statusPublished - 2022

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