We just estimated twenty million fiscal multipliers

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Abstract

We analyse the role played by data and specification choices as determinants of the size of the fiscal multipliers obtained using structural vector autoregressive models. The results, based on over twenty million fiscal multipliers estimated for European countries, indicate that many seemingly harmless modelling choices have a significant effect on the size and precision of fiscal multiplier estimates. In addition to the structural shock identification strategy, these modelling choices include the definition of spending and taxes, the national accounts system employed, the use of particular interest rates or inflation measures, or whether data are smoothed prior to estimation. The cumulative effects of such arguably innocuous methodological choices can lead to a change in the spending multipliers of as much as 0.4 points.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)483 - 502
JournalOxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
Volume82
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2020

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